Will the EFF be the King Makers?

The ANC has had a strong resurgence in Nelson Mandela Bay, according to this week’s eNCA poll. They jumped from 21% last week to 27%, while the DA held their ground with 42%.

The poll – which covers the three most contested big cities – shows that the EFF are likely to be the kingmakers in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay since it is unlikely either the ANC or DA will get a majority in any of these cities. The EFF’s decision on who to form an alliance with could shape each city. They are polling at 8% in Nelson Mandela Bay, 9% in Johannesburg and 13% in Tshwane.

Johannesburg did not change much from last week, with the ANC holding 31% and the DA dropping slightly, from 36% to 35%.

In Tshwane, the DA remained firmly ahead, staying at 39% while the ANC dropped marginally to 25% from last week’s 26%. The EFF’s 13% in Tshwane represents a consistent growth from 9% three weeks ago. The ANC’s controversial mayoral candidate in Tshwane, Thoko Didiza, does not seem to be finding traction. Her rating among voters dropped this week to a dismal 4,4 out of 10 (down significantly from last week’s 5,6).

The ANC’s growth in Nelson Mandela Bay seems to be consistent despite its candidate, Danie Jordan. His rating, after a week of some controversy over the appointment of a security chief accused of corruption, dropped from 6,4 to 5,2.

In Johannesburg, ANC candidate Parks Tau dropped from 6,3 to 5,5 out of 10, but stayed ahead of his DA opponent, Herman Mashaba, who dropped from 5,8 to 5,3.

The number of “undecided” voters, or those who won’t tell us their preferences remains significant and can sway each of these cities. In Nelson Mandela Bay 15% remain undecided, in Johannesburg 16% and Tshwane 13%.

This week, we also look at the smaller parties, showing none of them making much impact.

The poll* will be conducted weekly for eNCA until the 3 August municipal elections and broadcast on eNCA (DStv channel 403) and e.tv at 6.30pm every Thursday evening.

Full details – including interactive charts of the results – are available at enca.com/elections2016